You can’t replace Tuch and get the same kind of production, but Philadelphia’s veteran power forward can pick up some of the slack
The mood is about to change in Buffalo.
Sabres power forward Alex Tuch is going to be out at least two weeks, and likely longer, with a lower-body injury he sustained last Friday in Sunrise against the Florida Panthers.
Tuch is the Sabres’ second-leading scorer behind Tage Thompson. His 28 goals trail Thompson’s 40 and his 62 points tie him for second on the team with Rasmus Dahlin (who also missed Sunday’s game against Washington and is day-to-day) behind Thompson’s 79. The line of Tuch with Thompson and Jeff Skinner has been one of the most productive in the NHL and the main reason why Buffalo is one of the NHL’s highest scoring teams.
The Sabres’ first look without Tuch had Jack Quinn slide into his spot on that line and the initial results were very good against Washington. Quinn’s been on a roll of late and he’s earned the opportunity to play with Skinner and Thompson. It’s a tall order to do it.
When Tuch is on the ice, the Sabres are flat out better in all aspects. Shots, shot attempts, expected goals, actual goals — all of it. What he’s doing this season cannot simply be replaced, but they’re going to have to find a way to make do.
If Quinn isn’t the guy to hold it down, there are options outside of Buffalo to be had before the trade deadline that fortunately hasn’t passed. By the time March 3rd hits, it’s a position that could be addressed by acquiring a player with a similar build and style of play in veteran Philadelphia Flyers forward James van Riemsdyk. He checks a lot of boxes you’d want from a pinch hitter in this situation and it’s worth examining a little closer.
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At 33 years old, van Riemsdyk is in the final year of his five-year, $35 million contract with the Flyers. It’s funny to think that back in July 2018, Buffalo was one of the teams reportedly in on van Riemsdyk, but he opted to return to the team he began his NHL career with after six seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Throughout his career, the 6-foot-3, 208-pound van Riemsdyk has been a very solid, balanced scorer. He’s nearly at 300 career goals and 600 points and that over 14 seasons and more than 900 games makes for a damn fine career. In 40 games this season, he’s got nine goals and 14 assists on a Flyers team that’s been mostly allergic to offense.
Just by body type, van Riemsdyk is a copy of Tuch, but their playstyles are different. Tuch is a more physical player and a rabid forechecker while van Riemsdyk is lithe and slithery around the net. When it comes to his offense, this highlight reel of his goals from last season provides a solid cross section of what he does.
I also enjoyed this drive-by tip-in juggling act goal from this season:
It may be me saying this because he’s the first player I thought to compare with Tuch, but visually there’s some mirroring between the two. Tuch is seven years younger than van Riemsdyk and plays a more physical game, but it’s hard not to notice the similarity in shot style and variety as well as work around the net and on the power play.
Looking like Tuch is one thing, but performing like him is another and the deeper statistics help illustrate the case to give the Flyers a phone call.
Via NaturalStatTrick.com, van Riemsdyk leads the Flyers in 5-on-5 shot attempts for by percentage (CorsiFor%) at 50.68 percent. That’s the best number on the Flyers, whereas with the Sabres it would slot him in between Victor Olofsson and Jacob Bryson, good for 14th place among players with 450 or more minutes played at 5-on-5. The bright side of that would say if van Riemsdyk were on the Sabres and how strong they’ve been with shot attempts his numbers would be a bit better.
Reading numbers is one thing but what does it look like when it’s put together? Thankfully, Micah Blake McCurdy at HockeyViz.com does that exact kind of analysis. When you compare what Tuch has done (subscription) this season to van Riemsdyk (subscription), well… see for yourself:
When looking at those, keep in mind that red in the top two images is good and red in the bottom two images is bad.
Offensively, Tuch is impossible to match. He’s been a threat all over the offensive zone and he’s on one of the best lines in hockey. Again, you’re not going to replicate that. Where van Riemsdyk has a lot of success comes at the left side of the net and high slot. He plays left wing naturally, which, if you wanted to put him on a line with Thompson and Skinner, won’t work too well.
But what if you had him on the left side of Peyton Krebs in place of J-J Peterka? Or next to Dylan Cozens rather than Casey Mittelstadt? These options present more questions.
Let’s start with Mittelstadt because that’s a much quicker discussion. Despite some groaning about his general play, Mittelstadt has become a solid player this season. He’s having a career year points-wise, he’s been very good on the power play, and now he’s playing with confidence which is allowing more of his offensive game to come through more often. He’s got two goals and seven assists in the past nine games. You like to see that.
There have been fair criticisms of him through the year, particularly while he and Victor Olofsson were struggling simultaneously while on the same line, but he had a chance to play with Cozens and Vinnie Hinostroza (recalled when Tuch went on IR) and the line performed quite well against Washington. Sample sizes and such, Mittelstadt’s growth through the season earned him that spot and it’s worth seeing if he can continue it.
When it comes to Peterka, the debate comes down to what’s best for a developing player and what’s best for a team pushing to make the playoffs.
If he replaced Peterka, who hasn’t scored since December 13 and is kind of going through it dealing with the slump, it would go against a lot of what Kevyn Adams and Don Granato have stressed this season. They want young guys to have these moments and learn about NHL life as they live it and slumps and how to fight through them are very much part of the NHL experience. Adams said as much on Sunday saying it’s an opportunity for guys within the room to step up and help make Tuch’s absence less harrowing.
Peterka has shown sparks in recent games. Generating shots and chances has become more common and his skating has picked up its pace. If he’s pulling out of this extended funk, stunting it by sitting him down for a veteran player from elsewhere could sink his confidence and perhaps send an incorrect message about what it takes to stay in the lineup. Granato and Adams have been very mindful of the moves they make and being clear in the reasons why they happen, so the idea of a communication breakdown there doesn’t feel likely.
Tuch’s absence for the next few weeks raises the question of whether or not Adams owes it to the team to do something to help fill the void. Adding a defenseman has seemed likely for a while now but adding a forward felt like a low priority. What’s been true all along though is Adams is listening all over the place.
“I’ve been having conversations for weeks on all different situations,” Adams said on Sunday. “So maybe it just … we know these are critical games and it just puts us in a position where we’re more open to things than maybe before 48 hours ago. But at the same time, we’re not going to compromise, do anything short-term that sets us back long-term. So, it doesn’t change our plan or vision, but it just puts those conversations more urgency or front burner.”
Translation: He’s more active but he’s not about to empty the cupboards for a temporary fix. It’s the right approach and it keeps the message steady in-house. But the Sabres are right there in the mix for the playoffs, closer than they’ve been in a long time, and the pressure internally and externally to get back there must be strong. It’s 100 percent the driving force on the outside, but if there’s anything Adams has shown over his time as a GM it’s that he won’t be pushed around, and he cannot be strong-armed into making a deal out of seeming necessity.
That kind of resolve in the face of making it back to the playoffs and ending major league sports’ longest playoff drought will be necessary, particularly when there are productive players like James van Riemsdyk out there to possibly be had and address a potential short-term need.
If van Riemsdyk is a guy they zero in on, however, they can feel some comfort in that he would provide a tourniquet for losing a top scorer as well as a veteran presence whose been to the playoffs on a team that only has a few on hand.