A 2-1 road loss in regulation in a would-be-really-helpful-to-win game makes for a bad night in Buffalo.
It was a tough night for the Sabres. Not a tough night in the sense that they played poorly or did the wrong things over and over again. Sometimes it’s just the result that’s rough and Tuesday’s 2-1 loss in regulation to the Florida Panthers was it.
A win would’ve brought them to within two points of the Panthers in the wild card race with games in hand to help further the cause for the playoffs. Instead, it’s a loss that puts them six points back of both Florida and the New York Islanders and even though they’ve got two games in hand on both teams, it still puts their chances of getting to the playoffs out of their control.
Winning the final six games of the season may be their only way to have their best shot at it. They won six straight games earlier this season in December when they beat the Kings at home, then swept a western trip at Colorado, Arizona, and Vegas, home against Detroit, and New Year’s Eve in Boston. It was during that stretch Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen played his best hockey of the season and was the reason they won in Denver, Las Vegas, and Boston.
If they’re going to pull off the miracle run to end the season, it may be Devon Levi’s opportunity to take the starts and run with them and tack a few more cars onto the hype train.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves a bit. I’ve got a few thoughts about the loss to Florida and a look-ahead to Thursday’s game in Detroit which I’m looking forward to covering live at Little Caesar’s Arena.
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A look at the fancy stats for the loss to the Panthers highlighted how close the game was and how Alex Lyon hulked up and kept the Sabres off the board. But even the advanced numbers can feel deceiving.
A look at Natural Stat Trick’s tallies showed the Sabres had the better expected goal numbers at 5-on-5 by nearly a goal (3.76 to 2.92). Of course, two of the goals scored in the game came on the power play (one for each team) and the one 5-on-5 goal was the game-winner from Matthew Tkachuk that came on a tip near the net.
All the advanced numbers favored Buffalo, but their play in the second period made it feel like they spent too much time stuck in their own zone and relied on Levi to hold it down (which he did). The first 10-15 minutes of the first period were more in the Sabres favor as were the final 10-15 minutes of the third period. Ultimately the numbers bear that out, but boy that second period was rough.
It was interesting to see late in the game that Granato shuffled the lines up a bit to get a boost and it worked. He put Mittelstadt back between Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch and slid Tage Thompson between Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo. Those two lines combined for 2:26 of ice time and out-attempted the Panthers 8-1 but just 3-1 in actual shots on goal and all three of those came from Girgensons-Thompson-Okposo. All of that came in the closing minutes of the game.
In the final two-plus minutes, incredibly, three penalties were called, one against the Sabres and two in the final minute against Florida. It gave Buffalo the rare chance to have a 6-on-3 power play with Levi pulled for the extra attacker, but their faceoff play that led to a one-timer to Rasmus Dahlin didn’t tie the game.
Having Thompson back was a big deal for the Sabres but the added attention he gets as well as the fact he’s fresh off an injury (that he’s likely still feeling in some way) meant he wasn’t quite himself. There was some of Dahlin’s game that looked tougher than we’ve been used to seeing this season. Some curious decisions with the puck and you could quibble about how he defended Tkachuk on the winning goal (he realized a second too late what was about to happen) but that might be a little nitpicky.
If there was something to be critical of it’s that they didn’t seize upon Lyon’s nervous-looking play in the first period and bombarded him with shots. It felt like every puck sent on goal was an adventure for him and there wasn’t enough pressure. They outshot Florida 9-6 at 5-on-5 in the first period and NST said they had four high-danger chances compared to Florida’s one.
There was also the overturned goal for offside which…listen, I’ve made myself clear about my feelings on offside reviews. I think they’re bad and go against the spirit of the game and a player being a pixel off the line isn’t a reason to overturn goals when virtually every other rule in the sport is played with many shades of gray and official’s discretion. This isn’t a sour grapes thing (I wasn’t a Sabres fan growing up), it’s an all-the-time opinion. Gary Bettman was right when he said (paraphrased) the unintended consequences of adding more replays might lead to other problems. Sacrificing sanity so offside, of all things, is called 100 percent perfect is cockamamie madness. At least replay is used (slightly) better in the NHL than VAR is used in English soccer.
Enough about that, let’s talk about Levi.
It’s two games and it’s a very small sample size, but at the moment, he’s risen to the occasion and shown a tremendous amount of confidence and ability and has shown no signs of nerves or being overwhelmed by the moment(s) and situation(s). He’s made some incredible stops and had some plays to immediately put on his highlight reel on Tuesday.
He made a breakaway save against Tkachuk in the third period that kept the game at 2-1. A goal there would’ve iced the game for the Panthers.
He made a save against Anton Lundell after he was able to slip past Tyson Jost and get tricky backhand shovel shot off before Dahlin met him at the front of the net.
But the real special stop came early in the second period on a play where he robbed Anthony Duclair after a superb pass from Aleksander Barkov.
The save against Duclair highlights just about everything about Levi that has people excited. First, it’s his intelligence in reading the situation and knowing how that’s going to play out.
Secondly, it’s his quickness. He’s essentially going post-to-post lightning fast. It’s impressive to see him do that in the full flight of a play in motion. Goalies that aren’t the usual 6-foot-3 and bigger need to have another trick in their bag to make up for the lack of size and speed is a good one. Levi’s got it and he’s been effective using it in his starts.
Thirdly, it’s the save itself. It’s an aggressive play from Levi with how hard he goes across the crease and what he does with his body and limbs to get in front of the puck. Making a save like that just looks exciting and that he made the stop turned it into a superb play. I’m sure there are goalie nuts out there that could explain why it could be a bad play in the grand scheme of things (positioning, style, etc.) but with how programmed modern goalies are and how strict many (most?) are to their technique, seeing a guy go fully in flight across the crease to keep a puck out is exciting in all the right ways.
When beauty goes up against function, we all want to see the pretty things flourish, especially when the artistry, even in a chaotic state, gets results. It’s why Dominik Haŝek is the greatest goalie of our time. He got results and you never knew what you were going to see from him with how he would stop the puck.
What may be bittersweet about Levi’s play is that (again, small sample size!) he’s doing what the Sabres have hoped Luukkonen and Eric Comrie could’ve done earlier this season: Take the opportunity, run with it, and by virtue of that, gain confidence of staff. The Sabres are on the brink of being knocked out of playoff contention and they need to put their best lineup out every game to ensure their best chance to secure two points.
The question is, has Levi’s play earned him the next game in Detroit or will Comrie or Luukkonen get the call next? Levi is the hot hand and even though Comrie and Luukkonen have played well recently, Granato and the staff have tried to stick with the guy who’s playing best. Comrie last played more than a week ago and by Thursday it’ll be a week and a half. Luukkonen got the win Saturday in Philadelphia, but they’re not practicing Wednesday and didn’t have a morning skate on Tuesday. Freshness is a factor, too. That kind of breakdown makes the choice seem like it should be Levi, but juggling three goalies is an advantage to no one involved. I do not envy Granato and goalie/assistant coach Mike Bales.
Listen: If you missed out on the latest episode of Maintenance Day, it’s still not totally obsolete because of Tuesday’s game. But if you want to subscribe to it/add it to your catalog for future listening pleasure, you can find links to your favorite platforms here.