The Buffalo Sabres haven’t been this close to a playoff spot since 2022-2023 and they haven’t been in control of their own destiny since 2011 and even that year took them down to the wire to clinch a spot in the postseason in Game 81 of 82. Considering the lofty place in the Eastern Conference the Sabres are sitting in this season, we’re going to take things game by game and break down each game, the effort, the horse race for the playoffs that’s turning out to be something more out of Death Race 2000 among all the contenders and ultimately lead into when, not if, the Sabres vanquish the 14-year postseason drought.
Final: Bruins 4-3 in overtime
The game: If you thought the Sabres were all grown up and done learning lessons at this point, Wednesday’s game proved that learning never stops. Buffalo played a brutal first 40 minutes and, somewhat miraculously, were only down 2-1 after that. The goals against, however, weren’t pretty.
David Pastrnak’s goal that made it 1-0 came after a pair of lost board battles below the goal line which allowed Fraser Minten freedom to fire a pass to Pastrnak alone in the slot to bury one.
Viktor Arvidsson’s 2-1 goal came after Alex Tuch turned the puck over at the blue line to Nikita Zadorov who quickly found Pastrnak alone in front of the net. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made a great play to poke the puck away from Pastrnak, but it went to Arvidsson who crashed the net and slipped it by. Nothing will get Ruff’s dander up more than lost battles and turnovers and those two goals had both.
“Puck decisions weren’t very good,” Ruff said. “You’re playing a team that’s battling as they can to stay in the playoff picture. They won more battles. I don’t think that has anything to do with sluggish. That has a lot to do with will power and making sure you win your battles and we didn’t win enough of them at the start of the game. Then you watch some of our puck play in the second period and we just gave them opportunities.”
The third period, like the game in Anaheim, flipped the script.
Zach Benson tied it after he took the puck away from Bruins defenseman Mason Lohrei as the Bruins power play came to an end. Benson flew down the left wing past Lohrei to the net where he hard stopped in front of goalie Joonas Korpisalo and slid the puck by him to tie the game. Benson was then leveled from behind by Lohrei and kicked up a post-goal scrum which Lohrei came away with the lone cross-checking penalty.
“I think he’s been great, but don’t tell him I said that,” Jason Zucker said. “But it was a big goal at a big time today, and obviously, whether he meant to or not, drawing that penalty was huge, too.”
On the ensuing power play 33 seconds later, Tage Thompson swooped around the Bruins net with speed and slid a pass through the crease that landed on the stick of Zucker for his second power play goal of the game. Zucker injected life into the game in the first period with his first goal thanks to Thompson and his second had the sellout crowd roaring, putting the Sabres ahead 3-2.
“That’s what (Thompson) does, he’s a special player,” Zucker said. “He’s world class for a reason, and he made two great plays.”
But with six minutes to go in the third, Boston tied it when Casey Mittelstadt, who you may remember, knocked in a loose puck after a shot by defenseman Jonathan Aspirot took a wild carrom off the end boards and wound up going through the crease right to Mittelstadt at the front of the net who banged it home.
“Obviously it’s a big point and could have been a big two points again,” Ruff said. “Crazy bounce, but sometimes the crazy stuff happens to you when you don’t play well. Even though we played a good third period, sometimes the payoff is something bad will happen to you and it happened.”
Something Ruff pointed out on the tying goal was Josh Doan’s play ahead of the goal where Mittelstadt bounced off Doan along the wall as they pursued the play. Mittelstadt nullified Doan and the puck bounced to Pavel Zacha who fed it to Aspirot for the blue line shot that turned into the goal.
“When I talk about 50-50 battles, those plays on the walls have to be harder plays,” Ruff said. “It wasn’t a hard enough play. You look at the play on the tying goal, Doan on the wall, that wasn’t a hard enough play. They had two guys we had five and we didn’t make the right play. I think we could have taken a hit, brought it back down and made a better play.”
It was a lead lost late in the third period for the second straight game and overtime proved to be one where a little mistake costs them the second point.
Boston won the faceoff to start overtime and it allowed David Pastrnak to become the quarterback to find the right play. When it came time to attack the zone, he took a pass from Charlie McAvoy and headed in. Ryan McLeod did a fly-by poke check which forced Alex Tuch to step up to defend, but in doing so he left his own man, Zacha, free through the circle. Pastrnak’s pass goes tape to tape and Zacha’s shot beats Luukkonen clean through the five-hole and his reaction seemed to indicate he expected it to go far side.
A bad initial play becomes a bad play which turns into a bad read on a shot and becomes an overtime loss against a team they very well may meet in the postseason. It won’t stick in their craw beyond tonight given how they’ve played for most of the season, but the bad taste in left in their mouths immediately afterwards was clear.
“I don’t think we were very good tonight,” Zucker said. “I don’t think we played our game. I think we tried to be a little bit too fancy. We didn’t keep it simple. It’s nice to get a point out of it, especially when you’re not at your best. It would’ve been nice to defend the lead a little bit better than we did. Kind of a weird bounce. But overall, good to get a point out of it.”
What’s new: Conor Timmins returned to the Sabres lineup after missing 38 games with a broken leg. His return led to Zach Metsa, one of this season’s many incredible stories, to be scratched. Given the Sabres are carrying nine defensemen now, the third pairing will be some form of open audition to see who earns Lindy Ruff’s trust the most leading into the playoffs.
Ruff lauded Timmins’ penalty killing before going down, but the timing of his injury and the Sabres surge to the top of the standings is something else. It’s basically a brand-new team he’s returning to and his work on defense at five-on-five prior to returning wasn’t too hot. Then again, the team’s play wasn’t either, which made this first game back an interesting test for him.
As for how he played, the 5-on-5 metrics for his pairing with Logan Stanley weren’t great. The pairing posted a 32 percent CorsiFor and 20.2 percent expected goals. A one-game sample size is small and compared to the top two pairs, it looks worse (as you’d expect). But they weren’t on the ice for any goals for or against and Ruff, again, lauded Timmins’ play on the PK and more.
“He was rock solid,” Ruff said. “We gave him a little extra time. I thought he skated well. Every puck decision he made I thought was real good. Got the puck down the ice penalty killing, made the right play, got pucks out of the zone. Played like he hadn’t missed a day.”
The decision to sit Zach Metsa, who did take warmups on the chance Mattias Samuelsson wasn’t able to go (illness), irked fans who have grown to love his play and effort. He offers a counterbalance to Stanley’s game, so it makes sense in a way. But Ruff has his mind on the playoffs and finding the best player to pair with Stanley on the third pair is a competition right now. Metsa, Timmins, Luke Schenn and Michael Kesselring are all on the roster and battling for that spot. With 10 games to go, figuring that out will be important given the way the third pair is used to spell the top four defensemen and handle the penalty kill.
Ruff really likes Metsa and he’s been vocally supportive of Timmins. Schenn is the learned veteran and Kesselring has had his ups and downs all season both with performance and health. Guys are going to get left out and feelings will get hurt because of it, you just have to hope the big picture of the playoffs can salve the wounds from a lack of games and playing time.
The standings: Buffalo’s overtime loss gives them 96 points, and they sit three points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning in first place in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning have two games in hand. With 96 points, the Sabres are also even with the Carolina Hurricanes for first in the Eastern Conference, but Carolina has one game in hand.
The Sabres have the most regulation wins of any team in the East and would have the tiebreaker over everyone else should it stay that way and there are ties.
With 10 games left in the regular season, you’d think the math required would be easier to figure out when they’ll clinch a postseason spot. Wins help the most but the conglomeration of teams fighting and still eligible for the postseason mucks things up.
Friday’s matchup against the Detroit Red Wings, currently out of a playoff spot with 84 points and trailing the Ottawa Senators and New York Islanders by one point, it’s the Senators sitting in the second wild card thanks to having more regulation wins than the Islanders.