Feeling optimistic about the Sabres chances? You can do that.
It’s understandable to feel hopeful yet conflicted headed into a new season of Buffalo Sabres hockey, but this time around, it’s OK to lean into optimism because this version of them will be better.
Is there a science to this feeling? Are there concrete reasons why? Can proof be found before any examples are provided? No, of course not! But circumstantial evidence and anecdotes and observations we’ve got plenty of them.
The Sabres open the NHL season this weekend with a pair of games against the New Jersey Devils in Prague, Czechia and it’s high time we lay the cards on the table for how things will play out.
Shall we?
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Something I don’t dip into here with my own systems or calculations is point projections either for the players or the team itself. I enjoy the numbers, and I use them plenty in my work and analysis (as you’re all aware by now) but, coming up with my own metrics or game formulas or any of that is just not something I do. I leave that to the experts like the guys at Evolving Hockey who project the Sabres to be a playoff team this season.
Anything that I come up with is via the feeling from players in the room and the general vibe surround the team, which is dangerous because players and team folks have gotten much, much better at projecting a good face even when things aren’t going well. Case in point, last season. All of the (rightful) criticisms of Don Granato were aired out after he was fired and throughout locker room clear out day.
That’s part of what’s made this training camp different — all of the main characters have been in Europe longer than they’ve been available to us in Buffalo. We got an idea of what the lines, defense pairs and style of play will be before they headed to Germany and there’s only been one other exhibition game (against Deutsche Eishockey Liga side Red Bull München) on oversized ice to get a feel for them along with the two games played in Buffalo before they left, and those games didn’t have new captain Rasmus Dahlin in the lineup nor did their opponents provide much, if any, NHL talent to oppose them.
The main takeaways from those games highlighted what we suspected when the Sabres hired Lindy Ruff: high-pressure forecheck seeking to force turnovers on their side of the red line, a more physical style of play, and a team that leans into its collective speed at all times.
Something both Ruff and Rochester Americans coach Mike Leone made mention of during training camp was that a key focus was to not dawdle in their own end with the puck and that when they got control of it in the defensive zone, the idea was to get it up the ice as soon as possible because fussing around with it behind the net to set up a breakout or passing it back and forth from D to D was the easiest way to get trapped in their own end.
It’s such a simple idea and one that comes off more as common sense than anything, but not wasting any time (or energy for that matter) and just getting the play back in the other direction quickly is what’s going to get the Sabres turned back into a more offensive team.
Last season, they scored 23 fewer goals at 5-on-5 than they did the season before (197 in 2022-2023 versus 174 in 2023-2024). Ironically enough, the 2022-2023 New Jersey Devils coached by Ruff also scored 197 5-on-5 goals and had 177 last season while plagued with injuries and with Travis Green as their head coach for the final 20 or so games.
The idea here is that this year’s Sabres group will play with a similar kind of up-tempo threating attack at 5-on-5 as 2022-2023 but with better defensive responsibility and far, far better goaltending. On paper, that should lead to big seasons for Tage Thompson, J-J Peterka, Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. Those players are their biggest goal scoring threats and they’ll be able to lean into that with a quick strike offense. Alex Tuch and Zach Benson will benefit from this as well and boosts to both of their numbers ought to follow.
As far as guys who will have explosive years, it’s hard not to focus on Quinn. Injuries ruined last season for him, but when he did play, the points came with ease and provided good health holds for him this season, we’ll see the goal numbers take off and his point totals by virtue of that explode along with it. He’s also developed a special kind of chemistry quickly with Benson and having him on his line with Cozens driving them up the ice, that trio can be devastating this season. They’ll be able to take advantage of better defensive matchups since most teams will need their best guys to play against Peterka, Thompson, and Tuch. Forcing other coaches to decide between the frying pan or the fire is a great luxury to have and one the Sabres should be able to use.
Defensively, this also means Dahlin will shine. His ability to control the play and make elite passes as well as less hesitancy to use his very good (and hard) shot to create chances should make his point totals pop. Bo Byram and Owen Power, similarly, should benefit as well and it’s Power who is arguably the most intriguing player on the team.
Power’s skill set is elite, but he just needs to have the confidence more often than not to allow himself to take over plays when the opportunity is there. It took Dahlin some time to do the same, but once he did… well, look at what he does now. Power has that same ability and with the way Ruff wants the team to play, it should help him shine even brighter.
I get the concerns for Power playing physical enough in the defensive zone, but if there’s a coach who can help bring that out of any player it’s Ruff (John Tortorella and Ken Hitchcock would also be guys who could bring that out of a player, too, for what it’s worth).
When it comes to goaltending, it’s become standard for Sabres fans to fret and worry about the position. You guys have been historically spoiled at the position and ever since they traded Ryan Miller in 2014, each year that’s followed has been consumed with questions about goaltending. At least the non-tank seasons were anyway.
The corner Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen turned last season was a massive development. It’s allowed everyone to chill out about who would step up and it’s honestly a minor miracle that it came to pass given that he was the third option at the beginning of last season behind Devon Levi and Eric Comrie. Even saying that now with the benefit of hindsight seems batshit crazy, but things worked out for the best and it’s hard to fathom how ugly last season would’ve turned had Luukkonen not played so well.
The last thing Ruff and company wanted to deal with coming back to Buffalo was questions about who would play goal and Luukkonen made sure to put that to bed. I understand that there are fans out there who wonder if it was a one-year wonder kind of thing, but the approach and mindset of Luukkonen changed for the better last season. He had a virtual “I don’t give a fuck what you think” attitude but having that come from one of the nicest most polite guys I’ve ever met in hockey makes it all that much more fun to see it happen.
What happens with Levi this season will be fascinating. He showed a ton of growth in Rochester last season and was very good in the playoffs against Syracuse despite the series loss. The key for him is he still needs to be playing games and a healthy split between him and Luukkonen makes sense, although I’d imagine a 50-50 split like we saw in previous seasons in Boston with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman doesn’t seem likely given the contract Luukkonen signed, but performance will dictate that, won’t it?
That’s going to be the wrinkle all along with Luukkonen and Levi and, yes, competition is healthy and necessary. But it’s going to be very interesting to watch both goalies battle and push each other and try to wrest starts from one another this year and beyond. It’ll be a major source of drama within the fan base, for sure, and for now both Levi and Luukkonen have been supportive of each other this preseason.
I do wonder if maybe James Reimer stays with the Sabres for a couple weeks after returning from Europe and Levi goes to Rochester temporarily to play games (the Sabres have just 10 games in October and a lot of down time) until the schedule picks up and affords Levi more opportunities to start regularly in the NHL. Given that Reimer has played zero minutes in the preseason, however, it doesn’t seem terribly likely that would happen.
Bold Predictions
The sub-header says it all. These are a few of my gut feeling player predictions for the season.
As for the boldest team prediction, I and everyone else got burned last season saying the Sabres would make the playoffs, but this season if everyone is as bought in as they say they are and the play the way Lindy Ruff has them set to do — this can absolutely be a playoff team. A lot will depend on the teams around them, obviously, but the Sabres will be much better than last season and will put themselves in a position to be a playoff contender.
Now the predictions…
Rasmus Dahlin will break 80 points and be a Norris Trophy finalist
Jack Quinn will score 40 goals
Tage Thompson will break 100 points
Dylan Cozens will score 30 again
J-J Peterka will score 30 goals
Zach Benson will break 50 points
Lindy Ruff will be a Jack Adams finalist